2024 is the biggest election year in history. More people will be going to the polls than at any other previous time. In this article, we will show why that will boost investment migration by focusing on some of the key elections and related issues.
Russia’s presidential election will take place from 15-17 March. Political commentators have denounced it as a sham, with Vladimir Putin guaranteed to continue for six more years as president. The main opposition leader Alexei Navalny remains imprisoned for what many believe to be politically motivated reasons.
So, the biggest election year in history will contain damp squibs as well as dramatic events. Young Russians are disillusioned with politics as they see the status quo continuing. There’s an ennui that will take generations to shift.
Client Relations Manager Inera Sadykova is candid with her post-election predictions: “The election won’t change that much relating to investment migration in Russia,” she concedes.
“Many of the Residency and Citizenship by Investment Programmes remain off limits to Russians.” “Yet if the Ukraine conflict continues, HNWIs who did not earlier diversify their portfolios will start to.”
The Indian general election will be no earlier than April and no later than May 2024. This mirrors the 2019 election’s timing. That saw the right-wing National Democratic Alliance, led by Bharatiya Janata Party, comprise the union government, with Narendra Modi continuing as Prime Minister, a role he has fulfilled since 2014.
Modi is seen as practising the populism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. Opposition comes from the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) led by Rahul Gandhi. His father, grandmother, and great-grandfather all served as Indian Prime Ministers.
Latitude B2B Business Development Manager Binu Varghese is keeping a close eye on the election from afar. “Although I’m based in Dubai, I will be voting in India.”
“Events this spring are not going to have much effect on investment migration however.” “India’s restrictive passport, offering visa-fee access to just over 60 countries, will continue to propel Indian nationals to invest in citizenship elsewhere as well as golden visas.”
Whilst the UK general election could be held as late as January 28, 2025, common consensus suggests that the incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sushak will call it in the second half of 2024. The Labour opposition predicts it could be as early as May.
A hung parliament in 2010 saw the Conservatives and Lib Democrats form a coalition to oust Labour who had been in power for 13 years.
This latest election looks like being decided on key issues such as the cost of living crisis and concerns over the future of the National Health Service. While bookmakers and political analysts tip Labour as probable winners, they lost the 2019 election which many predicted them to triumph in.
Our Director of Operations, Alex Hopkin remarks that “The Tories have been written off before and defied the odds, but it looks like they’ll be occupying the opposition benches in the near future.” “That’s likely bad news for HNWIs as Labour have Non-Doms firmly in their sights.”
The Mexican general election is scheduled for June 2, 2024. Whatever the outcome, the ruling President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will leave his post. This is because the Mexican Constitution stipulates that a Mexican President can only rule for a single six-year term.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Sigamos Haciendo Historia left-wing coalition looks set to remain in power, though. His designated successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, previously the Mexico City Mayor, leads opinion polls.
This would see Mexico elect a women President for the first time in their history which seems likely even if Sheinbaum doesn’t win as her closest competitor is Xóchitl Gálvez of the broader Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition.
Our COO David Regueiro Santalla is sanguine about the election effect in Mexico. “Mexico has lost millionaires but to a lesser extent than in other countries in the region.”
“Whoever gets in, I expect any more movement to be a trickle rather than a drain. The Mexican economy is strong at the moment and I don’t see any signs of that changing any time soon.”
The South African general election will be held no later than August 5, 2024. The exact date is set by the sitting President, Cyril Ramaphosa. However, it must fall no later than 90 days after the current Parliament’s end of term in mid-May.
After dominating the political landscape since the fall of apartheid in 1994, the ANC appears to be on the wane.
The African National Congress’s popularity has dipped to below 50% for the first time since Nelson Mandela was voted into power. Their biggest opposition is the centrist Democratic Alliance, although a hung parliament looks the likeliest outcome.
European-based Strategic Partner Ilana Van Huyssteen-Meyer sees the hopes of the Rainbow Nation being stretched: “South Africans are well known for being eternal optimists and being able to turn any challenge into an opportunity…or a meme!”
“Yet the combination of political ineptitude, blatant corruption, failing power utility, and the increase in violence on the streets has pushed the most staunch believers into looking at their international options.”
“We have seen a steady increase in South African enquiries for residency in Europe, citizenship in Malta, and the UAE Golden Visa too.”
November 5, 2024 is the date American voters will be going to the polls and their votes will be decisive to many citizens’ plans. But who will become POTUS in the biggest election year in history? The Democrat Party’s Joe Biden is looking for a second term whilst the man he defeated in 2020, Donald Trump, is tipped to be the Republican Party’s candidate.
Critics of Biden, including most notably Trump, point to Biden’s 81 years as a hindrance to govern rather than help. However, his presidential rival is a mere four years younger. While Trump’s charisma has magnetized blue-collar Americans, the Democrats remain strong in urban areas.
“Expatriation is a hard decision for Americans to take and they must secure another citizenship first,” says Ranny Muasher, B2B Director of RIF Trust who merged with Latitude Group in 2018. “With complex tax considerations to take into account, they must plan accordingly.”
“As the great American Benjamin Franklin once said “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.””
We don’t know how an election in your home country will impact you if we talk to you. Only then will we begin to understand your motivations to secure a new citizenship or second residency. So, don’t delay and contact Latitude Group today.